We present a novel preference learning framework to capture participant preferences efficiently within limited interaction rounds. It involves three main contributions. First, we develop a variational Bayesian approach to infer the participant's preference model by estimating posterior distributions and managing uncertainty from limited information. Second, we propose an adaptive questioning policy that maximizes cumulative uncertainty reduction, formulating questioning as a finite Markov decision process and using Monte Carlo Tree Search to prioritize promising question trajectories. By considering long-term effects and leveraging the efficiency of the Bayesian approach, the policy avoids shortsightedness. Third, we apply the framework to Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding, with pairwise comparison as the preference information and an additive value function as the preference model. We integrate the reparameterization trick to address high-variance issues, enhancing robustness and efficiency. Computational studies on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate the framework's practical usability, outperforming baselines in capturing preferences and achieving superior uncertainty reduction within limited interactions.

Deriving a representative model using value function-based methods from the perspective of preference disaggregation has emerged as a prominent and growing topic in multi-criteria sorting (MCS) problems. A noteworthy observation is that many existing approaches to learning a representative model for MCS problems traditionally assume the monotonicity of criteria, which may not always align with the complexities found in real-world MCS scenarios. Consequently, this paper proposes some approaches to learning a representative model for MCS problems with non-monotonic criteria through the integration of the threshold-based value-driven sorting procedure. To do so, we first define some transformation functions to map the marginal values and category thresholds into a UTA-like functional space. Subsequently, we construct constraint sets to model non-monotonic criteria in MCS problems and develop optimization models to check and rectify the inconsistency of the decision maker's assignment example preference information. By simultaneously considering the complexity and discriminative power of the models, two distinct lexicographic optimization-based approaches are developed to derive a representative model for MCS problems with non-monotonic criteria. Eventually, we offer an illustrative example and conduct comprehensive simulation experiments to elaborate the feasibility and validity of the proposed approaches.

Most existing interpretable methods explain a black-box model in a post-hoc manner, which uses simpler models or data analysis techniques to interpret the predictions after the model is learned. However, they (a) may derive contradictory explanations on the same predictions given different methods and data samples, and (b) focus on using simpler models to provide higher descriptive accuracy at the sacrifice of prediction accuracy. To address these issues, we propose a hybrid interpretable model that combines a piecewise linear component and a nonlinear component. The first component describes the explicit feature contributions by piecewise linear approximation to increase the expressiveness of the model. The other component uses a multi-layer perceptron to capture feature interactions and implicit nonlinearity, and increase the prediction performance. Different from the post-hoc approaches, the interpretability is obtained once the model is learned in the form of feature shapes. We also provide a variant to explore higher-order interactions among features to demonstrate that the proposed model is flexible for adaptation. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed model can achieve good interpretability by describing feature shapes while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy.

We present a preference learning framework for multiple criteria sorting. We consider sorting procedures applying an additive value model with diverse types of marginal value functions (including linear, piecewise-linear, splined, and general monotone ones) under a unified analytical framework. Differently from the existing sorting methods that infer a preference model from crisp decision examples, where each reference alternative is assigned to a unique class, our framework allows to consider valued assignment examples in which a reference alternative can be classified into multiple classes with respective credibility degrees. We propose an optimization model for constructing a preference model from such valued examples by maximizing the credible consistency among reference alternatives. To improve the predictive ability of the constructed model on new instances, we employ the regularization techniques. Moreover, to enhance the capability of addressing large-scale datasets, we introduce a state-of-the-art algorithm that is widely used in the machine learning community to solve the proposed optimization model in a computationally efficient way. Using the constructed additive value model, we determine both crisp and valued assignments for non-reference alternatives. Moreover, we allow the Decision Maker to prioritize importance of classes and give the method a flexibility to adjust classification performance across classes according to the specified priorities. The practical usefulness of the analytical framework is demonstrated on a real-world dataset by comparing it to several existing sorting methods.

Machine learning has recently been widely adopted to address the managerial decision making problems. However, there is a trade-off between performance and interpretability. Full complexity models (such as neural network-based models) are non-traceable black-box, whereas classic interpretable models (such as logistic regression) are usually simplified with lower accuracy. This trade-off limits the application of state-of-the-art machine learning models in management problems, which requires high prediction performance, as well as the understanding of individual attributes' contributions to the model outcome. Multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a family of interpretable approaches to depicting the rationale of human decision behavior. It is also limited by strong assumptions (e.g. preference independence). In this paper, we propose an interpretable machine learning approach, namely Neural Network-based Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (NN-MCDA), which combines an additive MCDA model and a fully-connected multilayer perceptron (MLP) to achieve good performance while preserving a certain degree of interpretability. NN-MCDA has a linear component (in an additive form of a set of polynomial functions) to capture the detailed relationship between individual attributes and the prediction, and a nonlinear component (in a standard MLP form) to capture the high-order interactions between attributes and their complex nonlinear transformations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NN-MCDA with extensive simulation studies and two real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models with MCDA techniques. The proposed framework also sheds light on how to use machine learning techniques to free MCDA from strong assumptions.

The learning of predictive models for data-driven decision support has been a prevalent topic in many fields. However, construction of models that would capture interactions among input variables is a challenging task. In this paper, we present a new preference learning approach for multiple criteria sorting with potentially interacting criteria. It employs an additive piecewise-linear value function as the basic preference model, which is augmented with components for handling the interactions. To construct such a model from a given set of assignment examples concerning reference alternatives, we develop a convex quadratic programming model. Since its complexity does not depend on the number of training samples, the proposed approach is capable for dealing with data-intensive tasks. To improve the generalization of the constructed model on new instances and to overcome the problem of over-fitting, we employ the regularization techniques. We also propose a few novel methods for classifying non-reference alternatives in order to enhance the applicability of our approach to different datasets. The practical usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a problem of parametric evaluation of research units, whereas its predictive performance is studied on several monotone learning datasets. The experimental results indicate that our approach compares favourably with the classical UTADIS method and the Choquet integral-based sorting model.

Additive utility function models are widely used in multiple criteria decision analysis. In such models, a numerical value is associated to each alternative involved in the decision problem. It is computed by aggregating the scores of the alternative on the different criteria of the decision problem. The score of an alternative is determined by a marginal value function that evolves monotonically as a function of the performance of the alternative on this criterion. Determining the shape of the marginals is not easy for a decision maker. It is easier for him/her to make statements such as "alternativea is preferred tob". In order to help the decision maker, UTA disaggregation procedures use linear programming to approximate the marginals by piecewise linear functions based only on such statements. In this paper, we propose to infer polynomials and splines instead of piecewise linear functions for the marginals. In this aim, we use semidefinite programming instead of linear programming. We illustrate this new elicitation method and present some experimental results. Introduction The theory of value functions aims at assigning a number to each alternative in such a way that the decision maker's preference order on the alternatives is the same as the order on the numbers associated with the alternatives. The number or value associated to an alternative is a monotone function of its evaluations on the various relevant criteria. For preferences satisfying some additional properties (includingpreferential independence), the value of an alternative can be obtained as the sum of marginal value functions each depending only on a single criterion [20, Chapter 6]. These functions usually are monotone, i.e., marginal value functions either increase or decrease with the assessment of the alternative on the associated criterion. Many questioning protocols have been proposed aiming to elicit an additive value function [20, 9] through interactions with the decision maker (DM). These direct elicitation methods are time-consuming and require a substantial cognitive effort from the DM. Therefore, in certain cases, an indirect approach may prove fruitful. The latter consists inlearning an additive value model (or a set of such models) from a set of declared or observed preferences. Learning approaches have been proposed not only for inferring an additive value function that is used to rank all other alternatives.